Concentration through M&A seem to be a relevant trend among NPL investors and special servicers in Italy:
- Credito Fondiario and Banca IFIS decided not to continue their exclusive negotiation to form a new platform with som 45m of Asset Under Management +additional 25m as Master Servicer
- Intrum is said to be close to acquire Credit Management operations od Cerved Group that could be worth some 400m applying the same EV/Ebitda ratio of doValue.
Relevant transactions are also expected with
- Unicredit selling 6 Bn (Project Prisma) of NPL -the porfolio includes a mix of secured and unsecured retail loans + a UTP portfolio with some 1 Bn
- MPS that could be selling NPLs for 10bn in order to accelerate the balance sheet cleanup needed to make the bank appealing for potential buyers
Meanwhile the stock of Non Performing Exposures is close to a 10 year minimum as reported by NPL Market Watch issued by Banca IFIS
Reduction is quite remarkable also in broad European perspective
So far the outstanding NPL portfolios appear to be skewed towards corporate and secured loans
2019 Pipeline remain quite consistent
Even though 78% of AUM are concentrated in the top 10 special servicers a further consolidation process is expected that could potentially lead to a landscape with top 3 players covering some 60-65% of the market
GACS Scheme is expected to remain a key driver in the process reduction of NPL on Italian banks’ balance sheet while non GACs securitization schemes will be likely used to dispose UTPs
Savethedate – IMN’s 4th Annual Investors’ Conference on Italian & European NPLs will return to Milan, Italy on 13 November 2019 to address the latest updates in the non-performing loan market.
Savethedate – 13th CV Day will take place at Crowne Plaza Milan Linate on 20th November
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